Hello, please meet Rosie Scenario. But do CPAs really believe it?
by Rick Telberg
At Large
The economic recovery may still be spotty and weak, but most chief executives of the fastest growing companies expect it will only accelerate over the next two to three years. Meanwhile, brisk business at the nation's smallest companies is straining inventories and forcing price hikes, which may signal the best economy in 20 years. But these are only two of the latest reports. {otherwise 3rd graf doesn't work}
Yes, 'tis the time of the rosy scenario. Gee, it must be an election year.
In the first report, issued by PricewaterhouseCoopers, 73 percent of "fast growth CEOs", say the economic upturn will last two to three years or more.
In the second report, released by the National Federation of Independent Business, chief economist William Dunkelberg reports that his Small Business Optimism Index (which kind of makes you wonder if we should call it the "pessimism index" during a recession) has averaged 103 or higher over the past 15 months, unprecedented since the monthly surveys started in 1986. "This is a very strong run," Dunkelberg reported, "confirming the view that 2004 will be the best economy in 20 years."
Sure, that's what you get from a Big Four firm and a Washington-based business lobby, but I'd rather put my money on what CPAs think. Fortunately, I have a few clues, based on input from you readers.
In the last two weeks, more than 200 At Large readers have filed reports on current and expected business conditions. About three in four call conditions now "good" to "excellent" and the same number expect the upturn to continue for at least the next three to six months.
That's not "the best economy in 20 years," nor a long-term boom. But it is a sign of strength and optimism.
"Business is good, has been good and will continue for an extended period of time without any unforeseen catastrophes," according to the managing partner of a local CPA firm in Bellevue, Wash.
Another reader, CPA Vee Cristobal in Los Angeles, says, "I started my practice a year ago. I've been busier every day because of more and more new clients; small businesses are needing my help. This is a good sign for our economy."
Across the country, in Clifton, N.J., a third At-Large reader, reports: "a lot of small business formation going on right now." That's another good sign.
But their optimism isn't limited to their business or the economy in general. Some 78 percent also rate the prospects of the CPA profession as "good" to "excellent." Another 67 percent report their own net earnings up from a year ago. And in the next three to six months, 55 percent will be adding permanent employees to their operations.
CPAs are skeptical by nature and by training. If they've begun to feel upbeat, it can't be ignored.
